2013 Utah Draw Odds Released

[derekp1999]

Utah released their drawing odds for the draw this year & I have updated my projection spreadsheets for 2014 for those that enjoy numbers as much as I do.
http://utahbiggameodds.blogspot.com. Enjoy.

[Mularcher]

Thanks, I might have to rethink where I put in.

[MuleyMadness]

Thanks Derek!

[derekp1999]

So as I'm working through the non-resident odds, I'm noticing a couple of trends...

#1 - There seems to be an ABUNDANCE of non-residents that applied with 4 points for LE deer. Take these units for example:
- Henry Mountains archery - 75 with 3 pts, 183 with 4 pts, 21 with 5 pts
- Henry Mountains rifle - 422 with 3 pts, 1009 with 4 pts, 176 with 5 pts
- Book Cliffs rifle - 96 with 3 pts, 178 with 4 pts, 52 with 5 pts
Every unit for LE deer has a considerable spike in applicants with 4 pts going into this years draw. Curious observation.

#2 - There were several units that had a bonus tag go down to a lower point group because I would assume the applicants applied as a group. For deer it occurred on these units:
- West Desert, Vernon archery - 2 hunters applied with 11 points, however the bonus tag went to a single hunter with 6 points
- Fillmore, Oak Creek rifle - 2 hunters applied with 14 points, however the bonus tag went to a single hunter with 12 points
- West Desert, Vernon muzzleloader - 2 hunters applied with 11 points and 2 hunters applied with 10 points, however the bonus tag went to a single hunter with 8 points
Due to the number of tags offered for residents, this is typically not an issue... but in the case of the non-resident where so few tags (relatively speaking) are offered this looks to be a very valid arguement for holding the application period AFTER the number of tags have been determined. It's also further proof that you really need to know the "ins and outs" of Utah's lottery process (specifically how bonus tags are awarded) and increase your chances greatly by not applying as a group.

I'm interested to see what the elk numbers look like as I work my way through them.

[9er]

Every unit for LE deer has a considerable spike in applicants with 4 pts going into this years draw. Curious observation.

4 years ago they started to allow non-res to apply for all species. Makes sense for the non-res to apply for all tags possible since they have to have a license anyway. It has to be a big money maker for the DWR and those that conduct the drawing.

[derekp1999]

4 years ago they started to allow non-res to apply for all species. Makes sense for the non-res to apply for all tags possible since they have to have a license anyway. It has to be a big money maker for the DWR and those that conduct the drawing.

Thanks 9er, that's kind of what I was thinking but I couldn't remember when that went into effect.
The elk numbers don't show that trend nearly as obviously & it's probably because there are so many more elk units... but a couple of the more highly touted units do, like the San Juan:
- Archery - 46 with 3 pts, 91 with 4 pts, and 38 with 5 pts
- Rifle - 136 with 3 pts, 364 with 4 pts, and 114 with 5 pts
- Muzzleloader - 26 with 3 pts, 51 with 4 pts, and 15 with 5 pts

It's interesting though that the spike occurs only at four points then returns to more of a normal trendline for groups with 3 and fewer points... I would expect to see that trendline continue upwards with much higher numbers of applicants in those lower point groups since they can also apply for all species.
Another thought I had is that about that year Utah was at the forefront of the hunting community with the harvest of the Spider Bull in 2008, which could have generated a sudden influx of interest from the non-resident hunter and contributed to some spike. It also makes sense that the DWR would captilize on that increased interest and exposure by then allowing the non-res hunter to apply for all species the application coinciding with the harvest of a new world record animal. I wonder if the trend returns to normal as people "forgot" about the Spider Bull and moved on chasing the next big story to come out the following years somewhere else... maybe?

[derekp1999]

Noticed the same trend with the 4 pt groups in all the once-in-a-lifetime species... I really feel for all the non-residents with fewer than 4 points!

Moose:
Wasatch Mountains - 244 with 3 pts, 621 with 4 pts, 87 with 5 pts

Mountain Goat:
Beaver (early) - 189 with 3 pts, 417 with 4 pts, 27 with 5 pts
High Uintas, West - 57 with 3 pts, 145 with 4 pts, 17 with 5 pts

Desert Bighorn:
Zion - 357 with 3 pts, 646 with 4 pts, 146 with 5 pts

And check this one out...
Rocky Mountain Bighorn:
Book Cliffs, South - 426 with 3 pts, 1215 with 4 pts, 165 with 5 pts

Yup, if you're a non-resident and not in front of the 4 point group... get comfortable 'cause it'll be a while.

[Curtisshootsdeer]

i wish AZ had odds this good

[derekp1999]

Non-resident sheets linked and available... happy hunting.