need help

[westpoint77]

i live in northern utah and i have been trying to draw a great elk area for 15 years (15 points) does anybody have any suggestions for the draw next year

[9er]

What weapon? What kind of hunt/terrain you like?

[a_bow_nut]

Are you just looking to draw or are you looking for a unit that is producing big elk?

With 15 points I would assume that you are looking for an any weapon tag hunt?

[waspocrew]

With 15 points I would assume that you are looking for an any weapon tag hunt?

That would be my guess as well. With 15 points, you're getting pretty close to a guaranteed S. Cache tag... I know it's not the most popular, but I've seen some great bulls while spike hunting in that unit. If you're willing to travel a little, there are some great LE areas down south, but it may take a few more years to draw.

[derekp1999]

Ahh, the "what are my odds game" begins. I'm up to 7 years worth of data on how many bonus points it'd take to draw a tag in 2013. Here are my projections/recommendations based purely upon data. My apologies if I offend anyone by mentioning their "honey hole," but I DON"T CARE!!! I likely won't draw the tag, so I'm all for helping someone else get it. Plus the numbers are no secret. I'm assuming you're a Utah resident (assuming in WP - I'm not too far away in Clinton if that's the case).

With 15 points you'd be in the running for every late rifle tag out there.
If you'd prefer an early rifle tag I'd look at the following units:
- La Sal (projected 13.1 points to guarantee draw, 76% historical success rate, average age bull 7.5 years, 30 tags offered in 2012)
- Wasatch Mountains (13.3, 82.9%, 7.3, 240)
- Cache, South (14.3, 80.0%, 7.1, 42)
- Manti (14.0, 83.0%, 6.9, 131)
I've not been on any of those particular units but have heard and seen good things from each. You do need to consider the number of tags offered as half the tags go to those with the highest number of bonus points... so more tags offered = better for you since you'd be trying to get one of those "guaranteed tags."

Archery you'd have a good chance to draw anything but San Juan. Muzzleloader... anything but Beaver, Pahvant, Monroe, and San Juan.

Keep in mind these are statistical PROJECTIONS for the # of bonus points that SHOULD guarantee you a tag... so nothing is in fact guaranteed. The applicant pool changes slightly every year but for the most part it is relatively consistent and predictible.

[JimmyB]

Ya I wouldn't count too much on the stats either.... I have 9 bonus points and some buddies told me to put in for Wasatch saying I'd most likely draw out.... well I didn't but my buddy that put in for his very first time drew out the Wasatch tag. But all the areas you mentioned are excellent areas, I'd love to draw out for anyone of those.

[dispatch_ike]

I would suggest putting in for whichever areas you want to hunt... Forget the odds... Just go for it!

[derekp1999]

I have 9 bonus points and some buddies told me to put in for Wasatch...

I put in for the Wasatch as well (muzzy) with 8 points and thought I'd at least have a fighting chance but such was not the case. But that doesn't mean that I'll totally dismiss the numbers... it's like going to Vegas, there are games that you can do very well at 'cause the odds aren't 100% for the house.
The Wasatch is one of the "better" units to put in for with low points... there are always a bunch of guys that draw with their first or second application. It is simply due to the number of tags offered, no other unit gives out 100+ rifle tags up for the non-bonus point tags.

[JBird]

I don't really agree with the numbers game either. With 15 points I'd put in for whatever tag you wanted. My choices would either be the Dutton, the Boulder or maybe Panguitch Lake, but that's just cause they are in my backyard.